Both of Guangxi’s Fangchenggang and Beihai alumina projects, with a combined capacity of 2.2 million tons, have achieved normal production and shipments. It is expected that at least another 3.4 million tons of new projects will be operational by the end of June. Guangxi’s alumina production and supply have been steadily increasing after a period of decline over a roughly 100-day cycle. The expected and rapid increase in the commissioning of new capacity has largely aligned with market expectations and projections regarding its impact on the supply in Southwest China. However, whether the at least 3 million tons of capacity reduction caused by the unexpected event 30 days ago can be gradually recovered, and whether the recovery point coincides with subsequent new projects, is particularly important for assessing the supply balance in Southwest China.     （Chinese version）      （English version）

The increase in domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was concentrated in the second and third quarters, mainly involving the replacement or resumption of some non-compliant and historical capacity quotas of companies such as Zahanuoer, Tianshan Aluminum, Zhaofeng Aluminum, and Xiangyu Aluminum. During the same period, the replacement and commissioning of alumina production capacity by companies such as Honghe Aluminum, Huazhang Aluminum, Dongshan Aluminum, and Shuangyuan Aluminum is also expected to gradually begin, with alumina demand showing a steady increase and a process of regional supply-demand rebalancing.     （Chinese version）    （English version）

The volume of alumina exports in April surged according to customs records, largely related to transshipment and bagged exports to the Middle East, as mentioned earlier. Imports are also expected to be significantly higher than the average for previous months. The spot market continues its downward trend with fluctuations, currently exhibiting a slower decline than the futures market. Arbitrage opportunities arising from price spreads suggest a potential for accelerated weakening.     （Chinese version）    （English version）

Last week, the alumina market maintained a near-term weakness and a far-term strength divergence. The widening price difference between high and low grade ore in Guinea reflects that alumina plants are only considering economics under the pressure of squeezed profits. High freight costs and rainy season disruptions are also substantially reducing the shipment volume of small and medium-sized mining companies. The risk of arrival at ports in the fourth quarter is being repriced.     （Chinese version）    （English version）

The pricing logic for forward contracts has shifted to dynamically anticipate costs at the mining source: small-to-medium-sized miners in Guinea have voluntarily curtailed shipments due to high freight rates and negative margins, while the rainy season has further dampened expectations for arrivals. Consequently, the market has begun to re-price the stability of Q4 ore supply, resulting in forward-month contracts demonstrating greater resilience relative to near-month contracts.   （Chinese version）    （English version）

Downstream aluminum smelters are making spot purchases to meet immediate needs, while spot suppliers are offering pre-sales at low prices. Overall, concerns about anticipated supply increases are driving the current main trend in spot trading, focusing more on market conditions over the next 10 days and incorporating some expectations. The dynamic cost expectations arising from key ore variables are primarily concentrated in longer-term contracts, while near-month contract fluctuations are more closely related to spot transactions and real-time cost assessments.     （Chinese version） （English version）