The recent focus of the alumina market has been on changes in the expected increase in alumina production capacity due to resumption of production and new capacity, the implementation of Guinea’s ore policy, and potential disruptions to downstream electrolytic aluminum demand. Overall, the alumina market is characterized by a continuous battle between bulls and bears, with futures prices fluctuating and falling, while spot prices remain relatively stagnant due to higher futures prices.     （Chinese version）    （English version）

On the supply side, spot market liquidity remains tight, while high inventory levels on the demand side provide a basis for a wait-and-see approach. Mainly affected by the sudden drop in production from the two major alumina producers in the north and south, the spot market remains in the late stage of a tight liquidity cycle (awaiting the stabilization of new capacity and the resulting supply increase). Frequent transactions by traders influence supply and demand psychology. The current situation of regular spot bidding at Xinjiang aluminum plants reflects the current reality: on the one hand, suppliers mainly engaged in trading have no significantly lower-priced spot goods to deliver, leading to a significant increase in quotations; on the other hand, aluminum plants maintain high inventory levels, either slowing down the frequency of bidding or handling unsuccessful bids, resulting in a peak period of negotiation in the spot market.     （Chinese version）    （English version）

The three newly built alumina projects in Beihai, Fangchenggang, and Nanning, Guangxi, have all achieved external product shipments, with a full-load operating capacity of nearly 3.4 million tons. This is gradually filling the operational gap caused by the sudden production cuts and creating incremental growth. It is understood that some companies have already begun shipping their products northward to the eastern Inner Mongolia region at the request of buyers. Continuous capital injection and remaining storage capacity continue to provide liquidity to the gradually oversupplied alumina market, causing price fluctuations to shift over time. While various unforeseen policies and events may still have an impact, alumina prices are rooted in fundamentals, but the influence of capital has lengthened the price cycle.     （Chinese version）    （English version）

Currently, ex-factory quotes from scattered production sites have largely risen to levels exceeding 2,700 yuan. However, on one hand, the volume of spot goods circulating at the source remains limited; on the other, the “firm-price” offers for the few available ex-factory lots have seen a marked increase. Given that the associated risks are relatively higher compared to transactions in consumer markets, actual deal-making at the production sites remains sparse, with the few concluded transactions primarily involving a slight premium added to institutional quotes. （Chinese version）    （English version）

The alumina market is currently at a critical juncture where policy expectations and fundamental realities are deeply intertwined. The fundamental situation of increased domestic alumina supply remains unchanged, and high domestic inventory pressure persists. In overseas markets, demand for alumina is showing signs of increase, primarily driven by new and resumed electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Indonesia, Vietnam, the Middle East, New Zealand, and Iceland, providing some support for prices.   （Chinese version）    （English version）

Spot prices remained firm due to rumors of tightened bauxite exports from Guinea. However, traders, who are active price discoverers, had a relatively pessimistic outlook on supply in the short term, coupled with limited participation in spot trading. Although spot prices rose, there were no significant transactions in the immediate spot market. Forward spot trading was more active due to the widening basis.   （Chinese version）    （English version）