Around the May Day holiday, the market is paying more attention to the resumption of production at existing projects in Guangxi, as well as the progress of new projects coming online and releasing output. Based on normal forecasts, after a sharp drop in supply due to unforeseen events, a slow to rapid increase is expected after the May Day holiday, gradually easing the tight supply situation before the holiday. Especially with current stable high spot alumina prices, alumina companies are benefiting from controllable production costs and recovering profits due to previously low-priced imported ore and declining caustic soda prices, resulting in peak production enthusiasm.     （Chinese version）    （English version）

Against the broader backdrop of a shrinking market for domestically sourced ore, the economic viability threshold for imported ore is being redefined. Even in regions where significant transportation cost disadvantages persist, the superior grade compatibility of imported ores—along with their contribution to production scale and efficiency—has partially offset the associated logistical premiums. Consequently, enterprises are no longer solely pursuing the lowest absolute price for raw materials; instead, they are beginning to seek a more resilient equilibrium between cost structure and supply chain security.    （Chinese version）    （English version）

The cost of transporting imported bauxite in Guizhou is generally higher than in other parts of China, even compared to Shanxi and Henan, where it is 30-50 yuan more expensive. However, due to factors such as the relative price advantage of several mines, tight supply of domestic ore, and favorable indicators that are conducive to increasing production and reducing costs, alumina enterprises in inland Guizhou are trying their best to reduce transportation costs and, under the premise of relatively stable alumina prices, increase the application of several mines to achieve cost reduction and efficiency improvement.     （Chinese version）    （English version）

Alumina prices fluctuated upwards due to market rumors. Domestic ore supply was ample and production was normal, but supply pressure remained the main concern in the market, with worries that tightening ore supply would lead to higher costs. Spot prices remained relatively firm, with various unforeseen events during the week suppressing any downward momentum. Newly commissioned alumina plants in Guangxi entered the finished product shipment and delivery phase, and spot supply pressure continued to accumulate.     （Chinese version）      （English version）

The current alumina market is characterized by a stalemate in spot trading, while the trading sector has shifted to a wait-and-see stance due to the settlement window period. Although seller sentiment has shown slight signs of recovery, downstream consumers continue to purchase strictly on an as-needed basis, resulting in sluggish transaction volumes. Aluminum smelters in the northern region hold ample inventories, and supply is in a process of steady expansion; conversely, some smelters in the southern region are experiencing localized tightness in alumina deliveries, with supply exhibiting distinct characteristics of temporary scarcity caused by unforeseen incidents. However, as production facilities at the affected plants undergo partial repairs, supply is expected to recover from its recent lows.   （Chinese version）    （English version）

In the short term, the actual reduction in alumina supply exceeds the increase in supply. Downstream buyers in the spot market continue to purchase mainly on an as-needed basis, and traders are operating cautiously, resulting in limited overall trading activity. However, sellers’ sentiment has slightly improved in short-term contract negotiations, with prices settled based on website rates.   （Chinese version）      （English version）