As domestic alumina prices fell below the industry’s full cost line, the rate of decline slowed. However, due to relatively low cash costs, no factories have yet begun to reduce capacity due to cost inversion, and the fundamentals still show a slight oversupply. Unexpected overseas news caused a slight rise in spot prices, but the bottom support is insufficient, so a price decline should be anticipated. At the same time, attention should be paid to the impact of production at Brazilian factories on overseas markets, and then to assess the related impact on the Chinese alumina market.     （Chinese version）    （English version）

The relatively high price of imported bauxite in China provides some support for alumina production costs. Meanwhile, spot prices for alumina in both the north and south have fallen below the average cost. With the cost inversion at factories continuing, it’s possible that some high-cost factories will appropriately reduce their operating capacity. Recently, spot prices for alumina in the north have hovered around 2700 yuan/ton, while spot prices in the south have been around 2600 yuan/ton. This widening price gap has accelerated the market shift of southern alumina flowing north.   （Chinese version）    （English version）

Overseas alumina prices have remained relatively firm recently, and unforeseen events have also provided some support. However, in the short term, the price difference between domestic and international alumina markets is unlikely to change the current import and export pattern of China’s alumina. China’s alumina imports are expected to decrease compared to the previous period, while there is no profit margin for Chinese alumina exports. In the short term, the domestic alumina market is expected to continue to be affected by the fundamental oversupply, while downstream demand is unlikely to improve. Therefore, the overall alumina supply will remain excessive, and prices are unlikely to change significantly.   （Chinese version）    （English version）

Recent spot alumina prices have seen limited changes compared to the previous period. In the north, due to slightly tighter supply, transaction prices are basically flat at the online price. In the south, supply and demand continue to negotiate, widening the price gap between high and low ends. Going forward, there are expectations of increased alumina supply in the north, and downward factors continue to dominate the market, lacking support for price increases.     （Chinese version）    （English version）

The alumina market has been relatively quiet recently. Currently, the oversupply leading to a decline in fundamentals is intertwined with rising costs due to uncertainties in the mining sector, resulting in ongoing price negotiations between supply and demand. The continued increase in alumina inventories is putting upward pressure on prices. It is expected that, barring any unforeseen events, alumina prices will continue to decline slightly in the short term.     （Chinese version）    （English version）

The alumina market is currently experiencing low activity, and prices may continue to decline slightly given the weak fundamentals. Alumina plant profit margins are being squeezed, but prices have not yet fallen below the companies’ cash cost line. In the short term, there are few proactive production cuts, and alumina prices are expected to have further room to fall.     （Chinese version）    （English version）