This week, the pace of the Xinjiang aluminum plant's bidding and procurement of spot alumina remained unchanged. The final transaction price was basically the same as the mainstream bidding price last week. Due to the increase in freight costs in Shandong, it is understood that the supply is mainly from the Shanxi region. The mainstream transaction price, when converted to the factory price in Shanxi, is above 2,900 yuan. Under the cautious participation of traders, the bidding volume is generally low, reflecting the traders' concerns about the trade price spread risk during the period when the spot liquidity in the market is temporarily tight and the market direction is not yet fully clear.

The concentrated production reduction due to the phased maintenance of alumina plants and the need for aluminum plants to prepare for inventory around the May Day holiday have led to a short-term fluctuation and strong trend in alumina prices. However, the fundamental momentum is slightly insufficient, mainly because it is widely rumored in the market that the prices of several minerals have begun to decline relatively significantly, and there is an expectation of cost reduction in the market. From a quantitative perspective, the price level of several minerals at 75 to 80 US dollars is generally between 3,000 and 3,150 yuan compared to the cost of Jinyu alumina. Currently, the excessive decline in alumina prices has partially pre-confirmed the trend of several minerals. There is still considerable resistance for the price of several minerals to drop to around 70 US dollars in the future, which requires time for verification.

Although the transaction prices of ores are sporadic and have not yet entered the production process, for the capital providers, the transparency and confirmation of market information have been strengthened. Based on the potential import ore price of around 75 to 80 US dollars, if the Jinyu Alumina enterprise increases the scale of application of imported ore again, the weighted full cost is expected to drop to around 3,100 yuan, and the cash cost is expected to drop to around 2,950 yuan. The decline in mineral prices is relatively more directly beneficial for enterprises planning to start new production to reduce costs, as their production is proceeding as planned. Judging from the market's assessment of the expected operating capacity, this part of the capacity has already been included in the inventory statistics. The key lies in whether the capacity that has been reduced or cut in the near future will resume production due to the expected decline in mineral prices. This becomes the key force for further changes in costs in the later stage - adjustments in supply and demand - and further changes in prices.

At present, some alumina enterprises in the Jin-Henan region take strengthening the application of self-mining as their core strategy. Specifically, they maintain long-term survival through measures such as enhancing self-sufficiency in resources, reducing costs and increasing efficiency through technological transformation, and maximizing the re-substitution of imported ore. The logic of surplus production capacity lies in that, in the short term, it offsets the competitive pressure from low-cost projects along the coast by reducing the costs of raw materials such as ores and energy, maintaining relatively normal production and long-term customers. In the medium and long term, the reliance on imported minerals will be gradually reduced, and a more secure and stable supply system will be established, thereby achieving sustainable development in the competitive landscape of the industry.

Due to factors such as the complex application of ores, the still high prices of in-use ores, and severe losses, the production reduction of some production lines of alumina enterprises has significantly increased recently, providing certain support for the price of alumina in the short term. At a time when enterprises are concentrating on reducing production and before the newly added capacity forms an effective incremental supply, the supply is narrowing in a phased manner, and the price of alumina is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term.

The situation of cost inversion in alumina enterprises persists, and more enterprises have begun to carry out maintenance. Meanwhile, some of the previously overhauled alumina plants are about to resume production. Subsequently, it is necessary to continuously monitor the changes in the operating capacity of alumina. At the beginning of the week, the trading atmosphere in the alumina market was relatively active, and the price trends showed divergence. The market has diverse views on the subsequent trend of alumina prices, and the market is currently in a stalemate.