The alumina market has been relatively quiet recently. Currently, the oversupply leading to a decline in fundamentals is intertwined with rising costs due to uncertainties in the mining sector, resulting in ongoing price negotiations between supply and demand. The continued increase in alumina inventories is putting upward pressure on prices. It is expected that, barring any unforeseen events, alumina prices will continue to decline slightly in the short term.     （Chinese version）    （English version）

The alumina market is currently experiencing low activity, and prices may continue to decline slightly given the weak fundamentals. Alumina plant profit margins are being squeezed, but prices have not yet fallen below the companies’ cash cost line. In the short term, there are few proactive production cuts, and alumina prices are expected to have further room to fall.     （Chinese version）    （English version）

China is experiencing an oversupply of alumina, with spot transactions mostly below online prices. The market will likely continue to be driven by fundamentals in the short term, with prices potentially continuing to decline slightly. Overseas markets also show an oversupply, leading to alumina price declines. However, the current price difference between domestic and international markets is significant, offering no clear advantage for imports or exports. Liquidity has decreased substantially, and subsequent imports of alumina are expected to decrease. Furthermore, the continued outflow of goods from bonded areas in Chinese ports may lead to a temporary shift towards net exports.     （Chinese version）    （English version）

Currently, the oversupply pressure on China’s alumina fundamentals continues, putting downward pressure on alumina spot prices. The expected increase in alumina costs due to rising ore prices may gradually impact production stability, potentially exacerbating the cost inversion issue and increasing the willingness of some high-cost plants to reduce production. Meanwhile, continued attention should be paid to future changes in Guinea ore prices and policies.     （Chinese version）     （English version）

The Chinese alumina market is currently relatively calm, with fundamentals taking the lead. Oversupply has led to strong bearish sentiment, resulting in persistently low bidding prices and a slight decrease in domestic alumina prices. In the short term, the alumina market is expected to see further supply increases, and barring unforeseen events, alumina prices are expected to continue their downward trend. Due to high overseas alumina prices, the volume of imported alumina has decreased, and with alumina being re-exported from ports, port inventories may decline.   （Chinese version）    （English version）

The short-term fundamentals for alumina remain under pressure, with overall operating capacity still showing an upward trend. Meanwhile, the supply and demand fundamentals continue to show an oversupply situation, causing spot alumina prices to decline, albeit at a smaller and slower pace. As alumina operating capacity continues to increase, the downward trend may intensify. At the same time, the cost inversion for high-cost enterprises is widening, potentially leading to some capacity reductions in the medium to long term.   （Chinese version）    （English version）