Domestic supply has seen a relative decline following recent unforeseen disruptions; however, it is noteworthy that during this same period, arrivals of imported alumina have surged significantly. Inventories at major northern ports remain at levels exceeding 500,000 tons, with statistics indicating that imported alumina arrivals in May alone surpassed 250,000 tons. This influx of imported alumina is rapidly accumulating within the domestic market, thereby exerting downward pressure on spot prices in the regions served by these ports. Although regional supply-demand imbalances resulting from sudden production cuts persist, the overall domestic supply landscape remains characterized by a moderate surplus.
During the May Day holiday, ocean freight rates for shipments from Guinea to China experienced a sharp spike, potentially driving up the landed costs of imported ore. This confluence of rising cost pressures and market sentiment regarding future policy expectations has provided holders of physical stock with the necessary cost-based rationale to support—and potentially firm up—prices for forward-month transactions.
（Chinese version）
（English version）
