The alumina operating rate in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to decrease initially and then increase. Initially, unprofitable alumina producers reduced production, but new capacity coming online at the end of the quarter led to a rebound in operating rates. Based on these supply changes, the price of alumina in China in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to fall first and then rise, with an anticipated price range of 2600-2750 yuan/ton, and a quarterly average price around 2680 yuan/ton. The significant decrease in alumina costs may reduce factories’ willingness to cut production. The market structure of alumina in the north and south may change with the commissioning of new capacity; the previous price difference between the north and south may shift to a situation where the north is higher than the south. Once the price gap widens, the possibility of southern alumina flowing northwards by the end of the first quarter cannot be ruled out.
（Chinese version）
（English version）
