The decline in domestic alumina spot prices has fueled widespread pessimism in the market, and the oversupply situation remains difficult to improve. While spot alumina prices have fallen below the full average cost, the downward trend may slow somewhat, but a fundamental change is still needed for prices to stabilize. Factors such as capacity resumption and the expected commissioning of new capacity are putting increasing upward pressure on prices. Significant production cuts will require either a further widening of the cost inversion or the impact of heating season policies in the fourth quarter. Therefore, the downward pressure on prices is unlikely to change significantly in the short term.
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