Due to temporary restrictions on Guinea’s alumina exports, overseas alumina prices are expected to remain relatively firm in the short term. Based on current comparisons of domestic and international alumina prices, the volume of alumina imported into China’s bonded warehouses and subsequently re-exported may increase. However, the window for alumina imports and exports has not yet opened, requiring close monitoring. The alumina spot market is under significant price pressure, with high supply and high inventory levels consistently suppressing price trends. However, changes in costs may impact the stability of alumina production, and there is a long-term possibility of capacity reductions due to cost inversions.

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