The US-Iran negotiations and the anticipated future course of the conflict will influence the efficiency of passage through the Strait of Hormuz and the trend of crude oil prices. Changes in the efficiency of passage through the Strait of Hormuz will have a greater impact on the efficiency and direction of alumina circulation in the Pacific and Indian Ocean regions, especially on the impact of domestic bagged alumina re-export on small-scale supply and demand. Changes in crude oil prices will have a greater impact on the shipping costs of several mines. With a landed price of $65-67 as the benchmark for negotiation, the linkage between crude oil prices and shipping costs is expected to affect the landed price fluctuation range by $2-4, which will have an impact of nearly 100 yuan on the cost of alumina.
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