The alumina market remains weak, with both industry and capital markets focused on supply-demand imbalances, and bearish expectations dominating market trading. The arrival of imported alumina in Guangxi and its subsequent transshipment to Xinjiang suggests, on the one hand, that the import window remains open and the cost of imported alumina is relatively low; on the other hand, this indicates that freight rates for outbound shipments from Guangxi have fallen. With guaranteed shipping volume, companies are motivated to undertake long-distance transshipment. Southern alumina continues to flow to the northwest, leveraging its transportation cost advantages. （Chinese version） （English version）

Currently, railway shipments in Shandong are experiencing significant strain, with backlogs of vehicles at stations and a slight increase in road freight rates. Meanwhile, some cargo from southern China continues to flow to the northwest, capitalizing on transportation cost advantages. This localized shipping shortage, rather than supply or transportation constraints, is more likely to lead downstream suppliers to pressure shippers to negotiate prices. （Chinese version） （English version）

Transactions in the north are largely dependent on tenders from downstream electrolytic aluminum plants, while the southern market is somewhat quieter than the north. The north-south price gap persists, and the trend of “northern goods flowing south” persists. Furthermore, with the expected impact of imported alumina, domestic alumina prices are unlikely to see a significant recovery in the short term. The market is bearish in the short term, but stable in the medium term. In the long term, production cuts may provide price support, leading to a rebound. （Chinese version） （English version）  

The market is in a process of slight price decline and extended cycle. In the early stage, the supply pressure was relieved through changes in inventory at various ports. In the later stage, as inventory decreases, the pressure is expected to gradually concentrate on the production end.     （Chinese version） （English version）

Alumina spot prices fell slightly before the holiday, reflecting a generally tepid market sentiment. Tender prices in Xinjiang, Gansu, and other regions saw a downward shift in transaction volume. Following the National Day holiday, the domestic alumina market remained relatively weak. The core contradiction in the current market lies in supply pressure, driven by the dual impact of imports and the steady growth of domestic alumina production. The key turning point lies in whether the cost base can provide effective support. With the further decline in long-term settlement prices, high-cost inland enterprises are expected to begin to substantially reduce production. Active adjustments on the supply side are expected to be a prerequisite for a market price recovery. Overall, the alumina market remains in a downward trend in the short term, with future trends dependent on the support of the cost base and the clearance of high-cost production capacity.   （Chinese version） （English version）

Large-scale market transactions came to a halt before the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival. Based on bid-to-factory prices, the benchmark ex-factory transaction price in major production areas in northern Shandong and Shanxi provinces settled between 2,860 and 2,930 yuan. From a supply and demand perspective, the post-holiday market still lacks significant positive factors. Absent significant policy changes or other unforeseen events, the market is expected to maintain a moderate downward trend. （Chinese version）   （English version）