The alumina operating rate in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to decrease initially and then increase. Initially, unprofitable alumina producers reduced production, but new capacity coming online at the end of the quarter led to a rebound in operating rates. Based on these supply changes, the price of alumina in China in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to fall first and then rise, with an anticipated price range of 2600-2750 yuan/ton, and a quarterly average price around 2680 yuan/ton. The significant decrease in alumina costs may reduce factories’ willingness to cut production. The market structure of alumina in the north and south may change with the commissioning of new capacity; the previous price difference between the north and south may shift to a situation where the north is higher than the south. Once the price gap widens, the possibility of southern alumina flowing northwards by the end of the first quarter cannot be ruled out. （Chinese version）    （English version）

With the New Year’s Day holiday approaching, the spot market is relatively quiet. Downstream electrolytic aluminum plants have been stockpiling inventory in the previous period, so there are no signs of demand boosting prices. In the short term, spot alumina prices are expected to remain stable, while futures prices are expected to fluctuate in stages. Without any unexpected news, futures prices are unlikely to break through to the upside. （Chinese version）    （English version）

During the decline in alumina prices, downstream electrolytic aluminum companies replenished their alumina inventories to varying degrees, resulting in a temporary stalemate in alumina prices. Spot transactions in the market may be even less frequent, and electrolytic aluminum plants are not in a hurry to purchase spot goods. Therefore, it is expected that the demand for alumina will be difficult to boost in the short term.   （Chinese version）    （English version）

The spot price of alumina is diverging from macroeconomic news due to differing market forces. Spot prices continue to decline based on transaction volume, while futures prices have surged due to positive macroeconomic news, lacking fundamental support. Based on current prices, the futures price trend needs to be assessed by monitoring changes in production capacity. （Chinese version）    （English version）

Northwest electrolytic aluminum plants are bidding for alumina, with winning bids translating to ex-factory prices significantly lower than online prices. This, coupled with high supply and inventory, is putting considerable pressure on the market. Therefore, domestic alumina prices are not expected to see a significant improvement in the short term, and prices are likely to continue to decline. A large-scale production cut to reduce supply might support prices and stop the decline, but given the strong negative factors, the potential for a price rebound is likely to be limited. （Chinese version）    （English version）

Currently, alumina production capacity utilization remains at a relatively high level, thus the supply surplus continues. Storage levels in the Xinjiang region currently stand at 100,000 tons, which makes it difficult for the northwest region to show significant spot demand for alumina in the short term. In the future, attention should continue to be paid to changes in alumina production rates and the resulting changes in supply, in order to assess the impact on price fluctuations.   （Chinese version）    （English version）