Based on the current Indonesian alumina FOB price of $330 per ton, and factoring in ocean freight, VAT, real-time exchange rates, and port bagging fees, the theoretical duty-paid cost upon arrival at Chinese ports is around 2,900 yuan per ton. While there are transportation cycle disadvantages, the import window is open compared to current domestic alumina prices. This makes import economics particularly viable given the relatively high alumina prices in the southwest, effectively filling the gap in supply in the region.
The market is currently recovering from a significant north-south price gap, with the Shanxi-Shandong price gap widening. Sustained high production coupled with a temporary increase in imports has maintained domestic supply pressure, pushing the overall center of gravity of spot prices in both the north and south regions downward.
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