Although operating rates in the alumina market have declined compared to the previous period, the introduction of new capacity and the resumption of previously idled capacity suggest a potential increase in output. Consequently, expectations of high market supply persist, fueling ongoing price volatility. On the cost side, key factors to monitor include fluctuations in ocean freight rates for bauxite from Guinea and changes in caustic soda prices. Costs are expected to remain relatively stable, hovering around 2,750 yuan per tonne; however, given the current low price levels, alumina producers will likely continue to face a situation where production costs exceed market prices.
