The alumina market is expected to remain in a stalemate. While periodic production cuts provide some support—preventing further declines in spot prices—the pressure from substantial overall supply hinders any upward breakout, suggesting that prices will likely remain stable. In the longer term, market fundamentals will depend on the implementation of production restrictions during the heating season, as well as the progress of production restarts and the ramp-up of new capacity; ultimately, shifts in market fundamentals will be determined by the actual operating rates of alumina production facilities.
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