The anticipated increase in supply and the current tight spot market due to unforeseen events are in a stalemate. Barring other significant unforeseen events causing supply-demand changes, alumina supply is increasingly showing signs of growth, including the continuous release of output from new projects in Guangxi, the gradual recovery or increase of output from companies that had reduced production in the north and south, and a significant increase in net alumina imports. The industry is entering a new cycle where increased supply is putting pressure on prices, with prices approaching dynamic costs, leading to adjustments and accumulation in individual production. Supply changes should be monitored on a weekly basis, while cost changes should be monitored on a monthly basis; although there may be a time lag, the underlying logic remains the same.
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