The fundamentals of the domestic alumina market indicate rising supply, with the potential for an exacerbated supply surplus down the line as demand remains stable. Despite currently subdued domestic alumina prices, factors such as policy uncertainty regarding Guinean ore—compounded by the rainy season and voluntary shipment reductions by mining companies—must be taken into account; meanwhile, overseas alumina prices offer potential upside for the market in the future. In the short term, alumina prices are expected to face downward pressure, while the medium-to-long-term outlook requires consideration of unforeseen events and the correlation with overseas alumina prices.
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