The northern alumina market is currently facing resistance to further declines. Alumina prices have already fallen below the cash cost line for some high-cost enterprises. While southern alumina spot prices are lower than those in the north, and have a clear cost advantage, they are also approaching their cash cost line. Southern alumina is leveraging its price advantage to continuously impact the northern market, causing a price linkage between the north and south. In the future, close monitoring of overseas alumina spot transaction prices is still necessary. If Australian and Indonesian alumina FOB prices rise above $390/ton, alumina from Guangxi can be directly exported, which would be beneficial to domestic alumina prices.
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