China is experiencing an oversupply of alumina, with spot transactions mostly below online prices. The market will likely continue to be driven by fundamentals in the short term, with prices potentially continuing to decline slightly. Overseas markets also show an oversupply, leading to alumina price declines. However, the current price difference between domestic and international markets is significant, offering no clear advantage for imports or exports. Liquidity has decreased substantially, and subsequent imports of alumina are expected to decrease. Furthermore, the continued outflow of goods from bonded areas in Chinese ports may lead to a temporary shift towards net exports.
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