The alumina market continues to face potential volatility, driven by the evolving situation in the Middle East acting as a variable factor and influencing market sentiment. Even during periods of relatively stable sentiment, fundamental market factors continue to disrupt prices, occasionally triggering fluctuations that exceed expectations. Current market focal points primarily encompass five key areas: changes in Guinea’s ore export policies; whether crude oil prices—driven by the Middle East situation—will remain at elevated levels; whether these exceptionally high crude oil prices, combined with the aforementioned national policies, will lead to simultaneous increases in ore FOB prices and shipping freight rates; assessments regarding the commissioning of new projects in Guangxi and the pace of their supply output; and the increasingly distinct trend of imported alumina arriving at Chinese ports in bulk, only to be bagged and subsequently transshipped to the Middle East.
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